Sino-US trade war intensifies, short-term resolution is not easy

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2018-07-20 14:57

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The Sino-US trade war is intensifying. Although the Sichuan-Xi hotline has recently come and is expected to hold a dialogue at the G20 summit, the trade differences between the two sides are deep and it is not easy to resolve them in the short term. Next year's focus on the 5G infrastructure of telecom operators in various countries is a relatively safe investment direction in this uncertain era. Among them, 5G base station construction business opportunities, PCB (printed circuit board) specifications will be significantly improved, can develop high-specification PCB industry will benefit.

Observe the 5G spectrum development schedule of various countries. South Korea, Japan, China and Europe will release the frequency band between 3GHz and 6GHz in the first half of 2019, which is much higher than the 2.7GHz frequency band with the highest 4G. In order to ensure the smooth operation of high-frequency signals, the PCB specifications of 5G equipment will be improved: the CCL material (copper foil substrate) upstream of the PCB must use the material specifications of Low Dk (dielectric constant) and Low Df (low dissipation factor). Only those who can provide such high-order PCB can win 5G business opportunities.

In addition to Low Dk and Low Df, when 5G frequency band is developed to 40GHz and 80GHz millimeter wave high frequency, the original soft board antenna will be limited and an ultra-fine spacing scheme with a width of less than 0.5mm will be adopted. In addition, 5G adopts a 4*4 array antenna design, which will increase the demand for IC carrier board and stimulate business opportunities at the back end of 5G base station.

The new research team believes that with the improvement of consumers' demand for network audio and video and quality and the outbreak of data traffic demand, there is still a great demand for related broadband construction in the future.

U.S. Netcom system manufacturers estimate that 2019 will be the first year of 100G release. When the price reaches the sweet spot, brand manufacturers will increase their willingness to switch from 40G to 100G Switch. Taiwan's manufacturers supplying Netcom's high-end Switch PCB, such as copper foil substrate manufacturer Taiwan Yao and PCB board manufacturer Jinxie Electric, are expected to benefit from the trend of 100G release, driving performance growth.

Under the influence of the Sino-US trade war, high-end PCBs will return to Taiwan for production, but will not be affected by tariffs. The third phase of tariffs in the United States is expected to increase the import tariff on US $200 billion goods imported from China from 10% to 25% from January 2019, which will hit manufacturers such as Netcom, motherboard, PCB and power supply.

In the past, the tariff on PCB products sold to the United States was mostly less than 5%. In the future, more enterprises will be forced to shift their production positions from China. Among them, the gross profit margin of Netcom's enterprise-class switches and high-end servers is 20-30%, and the tariff on exports from Taiwan to the United States is less than 5%. It is still profitable to move assembly and contract production back to Taiwan.

and niche netcom PCB board factory, netcom copper foil substrate material factory, such as Taiwan Yao and jinxiandian and other high-end netcom PCB manufacturers, Taiwan also has production bases that can transfer production capacity in addition to high gross profit, which can leave high-end technology in Taiwan and enjoy the advantages of future orders (product technology upgrading).

Benefited from the development trend of PCB to 5G high frequency transmission and 100G high speed transmission, as well as the influence of Sino-US trade policies, it is expected that more and more Netcom, server-related EMS and ODM manufacturers will move high-level Netcom production capacity back to Taiwan for production, reshape the industrial cluster of high-level Netcom PCB, and the supply chain of high-level Netcom Data Center and Switch, including PCB copper foil substrate suppliers Taiwan Yao and Taiwan Optoelectronics, PCB board factory supplier Jin Lian Electric, 5G high-frequency material soft board developer Taijun, 5G base station IC carrier board supplier Jing Shuo, etc. will start the layout from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, making the performance contribution of servers, data centers and high-level 100G Switch drive revenue and profit growth momentum from Q2 next year. 58

5G concept fire PCB material family heat

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